The EMG Blog

JOB SITUATION IN THE USA – 7/12/21

As of February 2020 (pre-pandemic), 158.7 million Americans had full-time jobs, 5.7 million Americans were jobless, and the nation had a 3.5% unemployment rate.  As of June 2021 (the most recent jobs data that is available), 151.6 million Americans had full-time jobs, 9.5 million Americans were jobless, and the nation had a 5.9% unemployment rate (source: Department of Labor).

*The views, articles, postings and other information listed on this website are personal and do not necessarily represent the opinion or the position of American Pacific Mortgage Corporation.

NOT JUST KIDS – 7/5/21

19% of Americans that have outstanding student loan debt from college are over age 50, i.e., 8.7 million borrowers out of 44.7 million total borrowers (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York).

*The views, articles, postings and other information listed on this website are personal and do not necessarily represent the opinion or the position of American Pacific Mortgage Corporation.

REAL ESTATE – 6/29/21

The 2020 pandemic caused thousands of home sellers to pull their homes off the market, fearful of strangers entering their homes during the crisis.  In March 2020 at the start of the pandemic, 1.49 million existing homes were on the market for sale.  By March 2021, just 1.05 million homes were on the market.  With a smaller supply, home prices soared.  The median sales price of existing homes sold rose from $280,700 in March 2020 to $350,300 in May 2021, an increase of +25% in 14 months (source: Nat’l Association of Realtors).

*The views, articles, postings and other information listed on this website are personal and do not necessarily represent the opinion or the position of American Pacific Mortgage Corporation.

NO TURNING BACK – 6/21/21

42% of 1,046 full-time American workers surveyed in early March 2021 said they would quit their jobs if their employer did not allow them to continue to “work from home” permanently and they would seek new employment with a company that does (source: Prudential’s Pulse of the American Worker Survey).

*The views, articles, postings and other information listed on this website are personal and do not necessarily represent the opinion or the position of American Pacific Mortgage Corporation.

WILD RIDE – 6/14/21

After peaking on 3/24/00, the S&P 500 index fell 47%, then gained +121%, then lost 55%, then gained +529%, then lost 34%, and finally has gained +94% through the close of trading as of last Friday 6/11/21.  An investor who rode out all 3 “bear/bull” cycles since 3/24/00 would have gained an annualized +7.0% per year over the entire 21+ years (total return) in spite of initially investing at an all-time high on 3/24/00.  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

*The views, articles, postings and other information listed on this website are personal and do not necessarily represent the opinion or the position of American Pacific Mortgage Corporation.

BRAND NEW HOMES – 6/7/21

The median sales price of new homes sold in the United States in March 2021 was $372,400, an all-time nominal record, i.e., non-inflation adjusted.  The average sales price of new homes sold in March 2021 was $435,400, also an all-time nominal record.  The peak in both measurements (median price and average price) on an inflation-adjusted basis was set 4 years ago in May 2017 (source: Census Bureau).

*The views, articles, postings and other information listed on this website are personal and do not necessarily represent the opinion or the position of American Pacific Mortgage Corporation.

WHEN INTEREST RATES COLLAPSE – 3/18/20

Long-dated Treasury bonds produced a gain of +46.4% (total return) on a trailing 1-year basis as of the close of trading last Monday 3/09/20 (source: Barclays).

*The views, articles, postings and other information listed on this website are personal and do not necessarily represent the opinion or the position of American Pacific Mortgage Corporation.

 

HOUSING – 1/7/20

The average interest rate nationwide on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 3.74% at the end of 2019.  The record low national average was 3.31% as of 11/22/12 or just over 7 years ago (source: Freddie Mac).
*The views, articles, postings and other information listed on this website are personal and do not necessarily represent the opinion or the position of American Pacific Mortgage Corporation.

 

A LITTLE SURPRISING – 12/16/19

The Fed has had 8 “tightening cycles” in the last 50 years (i.e., since 1969), including the most recent cycle that included 9 rate hikes through 12/19/18.  During 6 of the 8 “tightening cycles” over the last 5 decades, the S&P 500 was “up” on a total return basis, including the last 4 cycles (source: BTN Research).

*The views, articles, postings and other information listed on this website are personal and do not necessarily represent the opinion or the position of American Pacific Mortgage Corporation.

THE NEW-HOME PREMIUM – 12/9/19

The median sales price of a new home sold nationwide in October 2019 was +17% more expensive than the median sales price of an existing home sold nationwide in October 2019, i.e., $316,700 for a new home vs. $270,900 for an existing home (source: Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors).

*The views, articles, postings and other information listed on this website are personal and do not necessarily represent the opinion or the position of American Pacific Mortgage Corporation.

Scroll to Top